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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest race is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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