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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd